Commodities love-crush Jim Rogers likes to say that in the 20th century the average commodities boom, caused when supply and demand fundamentals get out of whack, lasted 18 years. Given Rogers’ placement of 1998 as the beginning of the current upswing, we should have approximately another eight fat years. Yet Rogers also points out that by the time he starts getting investment tips from shoe shiners and taxi drivers and hears of new oil finds and technological advances that were too costly to develop in leaner times, it’ll be time to get out.
The question is, are there eight more years to the boom, delighting all the fresh commodities investors? Or do new oil finds – Petrobras’ Tupi in Brazil – and the fact that everyone is talking about even agricultural commodities signal that this bull market is nearing its peak? Is Tupi an exception? If not, why has the commodity cycle shortened?
